Issues in Transportation Planning #6: The Stick and The Map

Over the years, I came to believe that people held two very different views of transportation models. I call these views The Stick and The Map.

My goal is to write a fictional book or make a movie about transportation planning. My interest is not to advocate one or the other view, but to use the conflict to drive my story. That isn’t to say that that I do not have strong opinions about the right way to view a model.

The Stick and the Map

One view is the stick model. In this view, people see the model as a stick or weapon. It is something they can use to attack people. In this way, they hope to force others into agreement with them.

The other view is the map model. In this view, my view, people see the model as a map. A model, like a map, provides a simplified view of the lay of the land. In the case of a map it is the real land, while in the case of a model, it is a metaphorical land of the future.

These two views are in conflict.

Stick Models

Stick modellers want the model to make the decisions. To be effective as a weapon, the forecasts it produces must be unquestioned. If there is any doubt about the validity of the model, it has failed.

Stick modellers add more and more features to the model so that no one can say they have missed something. This approach will not work. The more complicated the model, the harder it is to understand. People will not trust a model they can’t understand. In the end, stick modellers will always miss some important factor, so they can never make a model that no one can question.

Map Models

Map modellers want the model to help them and others understand the implications of the decisions they must make. Map modellers accept that the model isn’t reality, but it can help them and others understand the real world. Map modellers may even deliberately leave things out of a model if it helps them better inform the decision at hand. They believe that credibility lies with the modeller, not with the model.

When you think of the model as a map, you change how you use it. Map modellers use the model to explore possible futures. They learn to recognize problems and opportunities when they arise in the real world.

They also recognize that the model is not the only tool they will need. When you go for a drive, no map can be a substitute for looking out of your front window as you go down the road. If you don’t know where you are, a map isn’t much help. In the same way, no model can be a substitute for a monitoring program. Every now and then, you need to have a reality check.

The Nature of the Conflict

Stick modellers are afraid of map modellers, because of their openness about the shortcomings of transportation models. This is a threat to stick modellers. The map modeller’s insistence on monitoring is an anathema to stick modellers.

Map modellers are disdainful of stick modellers. Where the stick modeller believes they have a big stick, the map modeller sees only a rolled up map. A rolled up map isn’t a very impressive or effective weapon, and it isn’t much use as a map either.

Story Conflict

Since these two views are often subconscious, the people in conflict would not necessarily understand why they are in conflict. None of the characters could address it directly, since they would be unaware of it. People will see it as a personal conflict, which would lead them to discount the importance of the conflict.

In a story, we want to have the hero resolve the conflict. Since I never found a way to resolve this conflict when I worked as a transportation planner, it is hard for me to imagine how it can be resolved in a story. In my experience, stick modellers do not like to discuss what they see as an esoteric philosophical point. On the other hand, in a fictional story I can create a wish fulfilment fantasy where I solve a problem that I couldn’t in real life.

An analogy helps to understand the complex. However, like a model, any analogy has its limits. The analogy of the stick and the map does not capture the full complexity of transportation models. When I write a story though, I can use poetic license to ignore some of the complications.

A rewrite for “The Gladstone Barrier”

I started to rethink my short story The Gladstone Barrier this week. I came up with several ideas that I think I can use to develop it into a longer and, hopefully, better story.

Description

In some of my stories, I do have a lot of description of the people and the locations, but have very little in The Gladstone Barrier. It is very much a plot driven story. I think there a couple of good reasons to add more.

First, I can use it to develop the characters more. How they dress, how they move and how they present themselves all tell you something more about them. I think that my characters need that additional depth.

Second, I can use description to create a mood for each scene. A cramped room and a cosy room are physically the same thing, but the description creates a different feeling for the location that will affect readers in how they interpret what happens.

Bits of Business

I feel I need to add some little “bits of business” for my characters. I mean little things that he does that reveal something of his personality. A neat person will pick up loose papers on a desk and arrange them. A sloppy person won’t. I can use these to make the main character, Arthur Macdonald, easier to identify with. I would want to do the same for the minor characters, but not to same extent, since I want the focus on Arthur.

Along those lines, I want to rewrite the opening scene so that Arthur avoids the collision through his own actions. As it is now I don’t think that is clear. That would make him a stronger character and not just some one who is blowing in the wind.

Ling the Mentor

I intended the character Ling to be Arthur’s mentor. I thought that was clear in the story, but some people commented that I should make her his mentor, so I guess it isn’t that obvious. I would need to expand her role quite a bit.

Some people might think it is odd to have a woman as the mentor. The term mentor refers to a story from Greek mythology. The goddess Athena wanted to help Telemachus find his father Odysseus. She disguised herself as a man named Mentor and encouraged Telemachus to seek out his father. In her guise as Mentor, she travelled with him to provide guidance and advice. So, I think it makes perfect sense. Maybe I can use that parallel in the story.

Technical Details

Some of the comments I had about the story focussed on some technical details that they didn’t think I had right. I want to fix those, which will change the plot somewhat. Currently the boss assigns Arthur to do the priority project on short notice. That doesn’t leave him time to do all the consulting and hoop jumping that the project would normally involve.

For the rewrite, I think it would be better for him to take over the project at the last minute because the person who had done the work can’t complete it for some reason. This would put him in a position where he has to defend decisions that he was never involved with and doesn’t always agree with.

Subplots

I also would like to add a subplot about Arthur and a girlfriend or maybe a wife. This would serve to round out his character. It also occurs to me that it would ensure that readers would realize that his relationship with Ling is not romantic. Maybe I can add other subplots, like a conflict between the priority project and the project he had been doing.

The Danger of Delay

I got quite enthusiastic about the rewrite, but I have so much else on my plate now that I have to put it off until later. I wish I could dive into it while my mind is still churning out ideas. I worry that if I leave it to later, that I will lose the inspiration. That happens some times, but usually I can pick it up.

Transportation Planning Humour

I wanted to put together a collection of transportation planning jokes, but I haven’t come across many. In fact, the only one I know of was one I wrote about 20 to 25 years ago.

Back then, our department faced some very difficult problems, which had resulted in the replacement of the manager. The new manager asked me to prepare a report about how new models might help to fix the problems. As I wrote my report, I came up with a way to explain what I wanted to say in a humorous manner, so after I finished the report, I wrote a short memo based on those ideas.

The memo is long gone, but this is what I remember of it:

We need to have three new models.

First, we needed a model that would help us address operational
problems with our transit system. We would call this the Transit
Operations Model, or TOM.

Second, we needed a model that would help us evaluate development
applications faster. We would call this the Development Impact
Calculation Kit, or DICK.

Third, we needed a model that would help us review the roadway
plans on an annual basis. We would call this the Highway And Road
Review Yearly, or HARRY.

In summary, with the help of every TOM, DICK and HARRY
we can overcome our problems.

I was a little unsure if I should actually give it to the manager. The humour is a little lame, but I thought he would like it. I felt relieved that when I gave it to him, he liked it. He liked it so much that he showed it to several other people.

Unfortunately for me, some of the others were not so amused. I don’t regret that I did it though.

Issues in Transportation Planning #5: The Public and the Media

The relationship that transportation planners have with the public and media is an essential part of the job. But it is a relationship that can be strained by conflict.

Researchers, like Zahavi, have found that people spend about an hour a day travelling. It doesn’t matter if a transportation planner works in the public sector or the private sector, in the end taxpayers have to pay. Given how directly people are affected by transportation, it shouldn’t be a big surprise that transportation planners are subjected a lot of public scrutiny. Needless to say, this can lead to conflict.

In my experience, everyone has an opinion about transportation and everyone thinks they are an expert. They may completely misunderstand what a transportation planner does, but since they pay the bills, you need to be diplomatic in your response. The customer is always right.

When I was in graduate school I read an article about public participation. That was 35 years ago, so I don’t have the reference. The article talked about the difficulty that planners had with public input to long range plans. Usually the people who showed up for public meetings would have more immediate concerns and had no real opinion on what should happen 20 or 30 years later.

More generally, when transportation planners meets with the public, people are often not interested in the issue that the transportation planner has been assigned. They may be interested in problems elsewhere, sometimes not even transportation related. I had a character in The Gladstone Barrier who was interested in sewers, but who glommed onto the transportation engineer to solve his problem.

I heard a story about a transportation planner who had a project where he expected several of the options to be highly controversial and get the public angry. While he was supposed to do all his evaluation under public scrutiny, he wanted to do preliminary analysis of these options before he went public. He thought that if he could eliminate the controversial options for technical reasons before he went public, he could make his life much easier.

The transportation planner’s relationship with the media is another potential source of conflict. I took media training once and I think most of the time the conflict in this relationship can be avoided. People in the media have tight deadlines, so they will be open to a cooperative planner who can make their job easier. That isn’t always the case. Good stories need some conflict, so media people look for the conflict in a situation. Some may even try to create conflict.

I must admit that I am tempted to make the public and media into the villains in a story. After all, that is often the way it feels to a transportation planner. I suspect that people in the public and in the media often see transportation planners as the villains. However, I believe that a more nuanced relationship where both sides show good and bad traits would make for a better story.

How Much Can I Afford to Spend on My Transportation Planning Movie?

Lately I have asked people for their opinions about my idea for a movie about transportation planners. Some comments I got made me realize that many people have an unrealistic view of the economics of moviemaking.

How Much Money Might I Make?

So, what is the market for a movie about transportation planning?

If we want to make a movie that only people who work in transportation engineering or planning would want to see, then there is a small audience. The Institute of Transportation Engineers has about 17,000 members. Not every one who works in the field is a member of ITE so let’s assume that there about 40,000 people.

Of these people only about 10 per cent to 25 per cent are likely to pay for the movie. That works out to 4,000 to 10,000 people. A typical DVD would sell for $15. Of that about $10 would go to manufacture and distribution. That leaves a profit of $5 per sale to pay for the movie. Distribution through other means would likely produce a similar profit. That works out to $20,000 to $50,000.

If we can go beyond the professionals to people who work in related fields, such as land developers and land use planners, we could have a larger audience. There are many people in the public with a keen interest in transportation planning issues, and we might appeal to them as well. That might increase our potential market to 100,000 people. If we do the same calculation as above, we could bring in $50,000 to $125,000.

Piracy of the movie could reduce the profits considerably. I’ve discovered to my disappointment that no movie is too small to be pirated.

We could broaden the appeal of the movie if we put less emphasis on the transportation planning and more on other aspects of the story. While this would increase the amount of money we could spend on the movie, we would also drift away from the original idea.

How Cheaply Can You Make a Movie Worth Watching?

In 1997, the movie Titanic cost $200,000,000 to make. Leonardo DiCaprio got paid $20,000,000. A movie about transportation planning would have to cost far less than this.

Feature movies can be made for surprisingly small amounts of money. For example The Blair Witch Project cost about $35,000 to make. There is even a course that you can take to learn how to make a very low budget feature movie: http://www.lightvideo.com/.

I have experience with this kind of movie making. I made Line of Taxis for $5,000. It is 11 minutes long, so if I used the same approach, I could do a feature for about $40,000. Since I made it, the introduction of digital technology has reduced some of the costs. Other costs have gone up.

A budget this low puts real constraints on a movie. In The Glencoe Project, most of the scenes are set in offices and meeting rooms. Most scenes involve just two people. These scenes can be done fairly cheaply. One scene though is set in a city council chamber. That scene would be much more expensive to shoot. In The Gladstone Barrier I have two scenes set out doors on or near a road and a scene set at a public meeting. These would be expensive.

Although a scene of two people in a room talking can be done cheaply, it can bore the audience if it isn’t done right.

Building an Audience

It is worthwhile to speculate about how many people will pay to see the movie, but it is risky to make a movie based on that speculation. How can I ensure I will have a big enough audience to make the movie?

A common technique that low budget movie makers use to raise money is to pre-sell the DVD. People would pay $15 upfront and get a copy of the movie when it is done. I wouldn’t want to do this until I was confident that I could deliver the movie in a reasonable time. I’m not at that point yet.

Some other movie makers seek out patrons. People who believe in the value of the movie would donate money to get it made. It would be difficult to find enough patrons to make a movie. Again, I wouldn’t want to try this until I knew I could deliver on my promises. I do have a donation button on my website, but currently I don’t promise anything.

Finally, some movie makers set up e-mail lists and FaceBook pages for their movies. This way I could collect contact information for potential customers that I can contact when the movie is ready. I do have both an e-mail list and a FaceBook page, but these are for my work in general and not just my transportation planning movie.

Would You Like to Help Get This Movie Made?

If you want to see this movie become a reality, you can help make it happen.

If you think you would buy the movie when it is done, then sign up for my e-mail list or FaceBook page. This will keep you informed about progress. If I get enough interest, I would set up a list specifically for the movie.

If you know other people who might want to see this movie made, please send them a link to my transportation planning movie web page.

Thank you.

I modified this post on 2011 August 11 by adding the paragraph about Line of Taxis.

The Evolution of My Transportation Planning Story

I have embarked on a project to make a movie about transportation planning. This idea has been percolating through my mind for a long time and has a long way to go yet.

Early Efforts

I worked for over 30 years as a transportation planner. When I started to make films in the early 1990s, many of my co-workers encouraged me to make a film about transportation planning. I was reluctant to do that.

I did, however, make a film called Line of Taxis. It wasn’t about transportation planning, despite the title. However, I did draw on my experiences as a transportation planner. I focussed on the emotions I felt rather than specific events. While it was hard to make, I was very satisfied with how it came out.

The Wealthy Barber

Some time in the mid 1990s I read a book called The Wealthy Barber. It used a fictional narrative to discuss financial planning. I found that format much easier to read than any financial book I’d read before. Later I read a book called Five Dysfunctions of a Team which used a fictional narrative to explain how to manage a team.

I wanted to explain to people just how transportation planning was done. Sometime after I read The Wealthy Barber I thought that a fictional narrative might make sense.

When I was young I used to read a series of books about Tom Swift Junior. These were kid’s books about an intrepid young inventor. The titles were along the lines of Tom Swift Jr. and his Something. I thought this might be a format I could use for my story.

I gave it the name Tom Swift and his Incredible Traffic Model. I got an outline done, but I decided that it wouldn’t work. Partly it was because I realized that someone owned the rights to the name and I’d need permission to use it.

Police Procedurals

In the 1990s I became a fan of the TV program Law & Order. It is an example of a police procedural. I saw this as a form I could adapt to a transportation planning story. A police procedural follows the detectives through the process they use to solve a crime. A transportation planning story could follow a similar process as planners develop a plan.

The difference, of course, is that the life and death issues are much more apparent in a police story. Police often have to risk their lives in the course of their work, while transportation planners rarely do.

My brother called this idea Law & Order: SUV (as opposed to SVU).

One area of transportation planning that had a lot of high stakes conflict was development approvals. This wasn’t an area I had a lot of direct experience with, so I talked to a couple of colleagues who did.

I started to develop a story I called The Thompson Proposal. I got bogged down when I tried to create a development project that would be the focus of the story. I abandoned that version of the story. I tried again with a story I called Traffic Collision. I ran into the same problems and eventually I abandoned this story as well.

Back to Tom Swift

When I described The Thompson Proposal or Traffic Collision to other people, they would usually assume it would be a comedy. That wasn’t what I wanted to do, but it did get me to consider humour as an approach.

I went back to my Tom Swift and his Incredible Traffic Model idea. This time I decided to turn the idea into a humorous short story. I did a first draft of the story, but it needed a lot of work. I didn’t give up on this project, but I got busy with other work. I haven’t gotten back to it for a while. I may work on it next.

My Detective Story

I decided to try writing a detective story based on my transportation planning experience. This time I got a complete script done. A little short for a feature, but I’m sure I could develop it further.

The script has some good bits and I have a lot of ideas about how to improve it. However, I don’t think it really works. Mostly because I just don’t know much about police work.

I don’t think I will go back to it now.

The Lester Dent Master Fiction Plot

I realized that I need to experiment more with how to tell a transportation planning story before I try to write the movie script.

I came across the Lester Dent master fiction plot. Lester Dent was a prolific writer in the 1930s and 1940s. He is most famous for the Doc Savage books, but he wrote much more than that.

His writing was unapologetically formulaic. It had to be if you were writing a couple of novels a month. While I don’t want to write a “formula” story, I thought I could adapt the plot to my needs. So far I’ve done three short stories based on the plot.

In The Abattoir Project my main character is a management consultant, although I don’t think he resembles any management consultant in the real world. The Glencoe Project and The Gladstone Barrier are about a transportation engineer/planner. In the last two stories I move much farther away from the formula.

After I did The Glencoe Project I started to seek out people’s opinions. I incorporated some of the comments when I wrote The Gladstone Barrier. As a result I think it is a better story.

I’ve gotten feedback on The Gladstone Barrier that I can incorporate into my next story.

Where Next?

My exploratory journey is still far from over. So far most of the comments I’ve gotten have been from people who work as transportation planners. I believe I need to have stories that these people will enjoy. I can’t stray too far from reality. As I move forward I need to find out how people who are not transportation planners react to the stories.

It can be hard to know if the way to improve is through better research and more detail, or by changes to my writing style. No matter what you write, most people will not like it. Their comments may still be useful. As long as I continue my approach of writing short stories, I can try out some of the suggestions I get to see if they work.

Issues in Transportation Planning #4: It’s All Bad News

“I never gave them hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell.” – Harry S Truman

I don’t know why I didn’t think of this earlier. After all, all through my career I was frustrated by how people reacted to bad news. Time and again I ran into a lot of flack about my “negative” attitude.

A good example was when I tried to set up a monitoring program for our transportation plan. When I did my first monitoring report to go public, the communications person criticised what I had done. He said that in my report all I did was point out problems.

He wanted me to rewrite it and focus more on the positive message of what we were doing about the problems. That got my back up. As I said to him, my message is that there is a problem and we need to do something about it. If I made it too positive, my audience might not realize they had to act. In transportation monitoring, if it’s not bad news it isn’t news at all.

Over the years I ran into this same attitude again and again. People told me that I was too negative, that I wasn’t a team player or that I was a trouble maker. Sometimes I stood my ground and other times I backed down.

Not only did this hurt my prospects for career advancement, it also undercut my message. People thought I was just an alarmist and would discount what I said. When I see all the criticism of climate scientists over global warming, I can really identify with the situation they face.

Certainly from my personal experience this is a major source of conflict. The hero of the story would need to struggle to get his message across, while he defended himself against the “shoot the messenger” response. In my story The Gladstone Barrier, I touch on this issue a little. I have another story idea, The Error, which could have this as the main conflict.

The problem with this issue as a story element is that it comes too close to my personal experience. Since it brings out a lot of personal feelings, it is harder for me to work with. On the other hand, if I draw on the emotions I felt, I can create a more compelling story.